Global stock markets’ best and worst performers in a Trump-fueled 2025 — and where they’re headed
Global stocks have surged to unprecedented levels in the first half of 2025, even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff salvos ripple across the globe. Here are the top winners and losers globally, as well as where they’re headed. The MSCI All Country World Index, which measures the performance of over 2,500 stocks from both developed and emerging market equities, rose nearly 10% since the start of the year to hit a record high on July 4. European equities have emerged as the surprise stars of 2025, with Greece, Poland, Czech Republic and Spain leading the world in year-to-date gains, according to data collated by Morningstar for CNBC. In comparison, U.S. equities climbed comparatively lower in light of wavering confidence in American assets following Trump’s erratic policymaking. “The global trade war that the U.S. started has been, and will continue to be, the catalyst for this ex-U.S. outperformance,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Meanwhile, South Korea stands out as Asia’s best performer amid the region’s divergent performances, while Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia languish at the bottom of the global rankings. Europe’s renaissance Greece was the best-performing stock market year-to-date with gains of almost 60%, and market watchers say there’s room for further surge. “Greece has been a standout in Eastern Europe for some time, supported by a recovering economy, banking sector reforms, and strong tourism,” said Gabriel Sacks, Aberdeen’s investment director of global emerging markets equities. The government’s commitment to fiscal surpluses and early repayment of bailout loans have also lifted investor confidence. George Efstathopoulos, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, expects Greek equities to continue outperforming, adding that Greek equities are heavy on banks, which have been beating expectations and guiding higher. European markets have been the standout performer globally in the first half of the year. Morningstar Michael Field Poland and the Czech Republic came in as second and third-best performers, gaining 56% and 52% year-to-date, respectively. Among the top ten performers, eight come from European markets. Aside from Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic, other names include Spain, Italy and Germany. Market watchers attribute Europe’s rally to a cocktail of recovering growth, undervaluation, and capital rotating out of U.S. stocks earlier in the year as confidence in American assets gets increasingly tested. “European markets have been the standout performer globally in the first half of the year,” said Morningstar’s EMEA chief equity market strategist, Michael Field, attributing the inflow to the “sell America” movement earlier in the year, as well as an improving economic situation in Europe. The positive sentiment was echoed by Schwab Center for Financial Research’s Michelle Gibley, who attributed Germany’s pivot away from austerity as part of the reason for Europe’s growth. Additionally, Trump’s tariffs will continue to create conditions for European growth to ignite, market strategists polled by Natixis believe, who added that European defense stocks could continue to offer sizable returns. European defense stocks and bank sectors, which are key to the region’s market performance, are also less exposed to tariff wars, said Mark Mobius, chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund. Comparatively, Morningstar’s U.S. stock market gauge rose by only around 7%, placing it further down the list in terms of its performance year-to-date. However, the exodus of American assets, which accelerated in April this year, has largely reversed its course with the major benchmarks, S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, recently scaling record highs. Asia’s diverging performance Among a mixed performance from Asian benchmarks, South Korea has staged an impressive comeback in 2025, posting a rally of over 30% year-to-date and taking the regional pole position. Despite domestic political turmoil and a 25% levy on exports to the U.S., the country’s market outlook remains “looking reasonably good” as the tariff rate was already priced in, said Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Yuanta Securities. He added that there is a chance of a lower rate if the negotiation continues until August 1, which is when tariffs announced back in April will kick in, for countries that have not reached an agreement. The market also believes that Korean exporters may be able to withstand these levies better, as much of the price increase could be absorbed by U.S. consumers, said Manishi Raychaudhuri, chief executive officer at Emmer Capital Partners Limited. On a fundamental level, the election of a new president from the opposition earlier this year lifted investor sentiment and raised hopes for long-awaited corporate governance reforms, said Morningstar’s senior equity analyst, Kai Wang, who noted the outperformance of key sectors, such as shipbuilding and advanced high-bandwidth memory chips that are increasingly used in AI processors. In June, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung won the nation’s snap presidential election following months of upheaval sparked by former president Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law. China, which found itself in the Trump administrations’ crosshairs for the larger part of this year, rose over 17% year-to-date. Looking forward to the rest of the year, HSBC sees catalysts from a potential appreciation of the yuan, improvements in earnings as well as policy support. However, the bank’s Head of Research at HSBC Qianhai Securities, Steven Sun, said that the country’s overall economic growth may continue to face pressure with no bazooka stimulus in sight. The Laggards: Thailand and Turkey At the bottom of the league table is Thailand. The Southeast Asian nation’s stock market has slumped over 13% since the start of the year amid political turmoil, corruption scandals, economic woes and the drag of U.S. auto tariffs on its crucial auto parts export sector. “Thailand continues to struggle with a sluggish post-Covid recovery. Tourism remains below pre-pandemic levels, and political instability is weighing on consumer confidence,” said Aberdeen’s Sacks. Recently, the country’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was suspended from office by the constitutional court over a leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which led to a petition from 36 senators accusing her of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards. Turkey, whose stock markets are faring second last in performance, has economic headwinds that are equally pronounced, with political repression and runaway inflation spooking investors. “The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor dashed nascent signs of optimism,” said Sacks, who sees little chance of a sustained recovery without credible policy shifts. Mobius added that the country’s currency collapse has also exacerbated the loss of investor confidence and capital flight. The Turkish lira depreciated almost 13% against the greenback since the start of the year. Rounding things off… That said, to put things into context — 2025 has been a fairly bullish year so far for equities, with only five stock markets posting losses year-to-date, according to Morningstar’s equity gauges. “The worst of negative shock surprises may be behind us post Liberation day, ” said Fidelity International’s Efstathopoulos, who was referring to the name Trump gave to his sweeping tariff policy on April 2. While uncertainty is still high, he noted that a key market like China is stimulating its economy, and that the Federal Reserve has been on the path of easing, albeit slowly. “The most fiscal conservative government, Germany, has ended decades worth of fiscal austerity, all of which should be a positive for global growth,” he said. Despite a slew of headwinds in the first half of the year, investment markets did well and displayed resilience, said OCBC’s investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, though he added that he expects volatility to remain in the second half of the year as global uncertainties remain a fixture. “However, do not be surprised if investment markets continue to overcome headwinds and do well in the second half too – especially if concerns about trade, tariffs and inflation ease in the coming months,” he said.
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