The index to watch to decide if we are entering a new bull phase
Wall Street has its eye on the S & P 500 Equal Weight Index — which treats every stock equally — to gauge if the current market rally is a head fake or the start of a serious bull run. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF , known by its RSP ticker symbol, closed Friday at an all-time high. The equal-weighted version of the broad market index — which gives less weight to buzzy technology names than the classic S & P 500 — scored its first record since late November. “It will be an important chart to watch over the coming week,” Rob Ginsberg, technical analyst at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note to clients over the weekend. “A breakout to new highs in the face of overbought conditions is something we would have to respect.” RSP .SPX 1Y mountain Equal-weighted S & P 500 ETF vs the S & P 500 over the past year. Because the equal-weighted index isn’t concentrated in megacap technology names, investors see it as a better gauge of the health of the entire economy and stock market than the regular S & P 500. As a result, the equal weighted S & P 500 hitting an all-time closing high Friday in tandem with the S & P 500 — which itself has scored a series of new all-time highs in late July — gives some traders confidence that the current rally is more than a blip. “New highs for this ETF is a simple way to suggest price based market breadth is starting to improve,” said Paul Ciana, Bank of America’s technical strategist, in a Monday note to clients. The fund has a tailwind thanks to the head-and-shoulders formation etched out in its price chart, Ciana added. Similarly, Roth MKM chief technical strategist JC O’Hara said the equal-weighted index’s recent performance is constructive for equity investors, even though the stock market may be due for a pause after the run up to record highs. The S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF pulled back more than a half of 1% on Monday, lagging the S & P 500, even after the trade deal President Trump struck with the European Union in Scotland on Sunday. Still, “the expansion of breadth in the middle of earnings season widens the playing field for stock selection,” O’Hara wrote to clients. That “should be seen as bullish behavior.” Wolfe’s Ginsberg also raised the idea of the playing field shifting. Outperformance of sectors that are considered more defensive, for example, can show a market leadership rotation is in the cards, he said. In that light, the S & P 500 Equal Weight index surpassing its November record close can signal a return to broadly bullish market conditions. Investors sent stocks soaring that month in the wake of Trump’s re-election, which many saw as heralding an era of business deregulation. With Friday’s record-setting move, the RSP is higher by more than 8% on the year. Yet the S & P 500 has outperformed, rising more than 9% in the same period.
