Putin vs. Trump? Ukraine talks could be a test of statecraft
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s standing in the West may be pretty low, but he’s a skilled and seasoned statesman who shouldn’t be underestimated, analysts say — and he’s likely to be looking to outmaneuver his less experienced U.S. counterpart when the leaders meet in Alaska on Friday. Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are meeting to try to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, but close followers of Moscow’s leadership are skeptical that any lasting resolution will be reached at the summit. “Let’s be clear, Putin does not take Trump seriously,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC ahead of the talks. “He has ramped up attacks, including on civilians in urban centers over the summer, and that has upset Trump and frustrated him, and frankly, it’s humiliating,” Fordham said, adding that meeting Trump would be “a low-cost photo op for Putin, who has a real track record of manipulating Trump administration officials.” Ukraine and its European allies (who have not been invited to the talks) also argue that Putin is not serious about ending the conflict of more than three years. Kyiv’s leadership also claimed this week that intelligence suggests Russia is preparing to mount new offensives , rather than preparing for a ceasefire or peace. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to the claims and is awaiting a response. Military analysts cited several reasons that Russia might not want to end the war before it needs to, such as its forces’ relatively advantageous position on the battlefield despite high attrition rates; entrenched position in Russian-occupied regions in the south and east of Ukraine; and ability to throw more manpower into the fight. Maximum concessions It’s therefore likely that Putin will try to extract the as many concessions and benefits for Russia as he can from the United States when he sets foot on American soil for the first time in almost a decade. “The Russian side will likely seek to broaden the agenda beyond Ukraine, emphasizing the potential for strategic geopolitical and economic cooperation — including lucrative energy deals and potential arms control or strategic weapons treaties,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed comments this week. “The Kremlin likely hopes that the transactional nature of Trump’s approach to foreign policy will help advance Putin’s objectives in Ukraine, such as territorial concessions, restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty and military capabilities, and replacement of its political leadership,” he added. The Kremlin’s awareness of Trump’s transactional nature when it comes to deal-making is likely to underscore how Putin approaches him during talks, and Putin is a skilled negotiator, according to Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard. “Putin is always skillful in using ‘give and take,'” he told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box Europe ” on Monday. “True, Putin’s got a big win [by being invited to Alaska] and securing negotiations on a deal before a ceasefire,” he said, “but he’s given Trump something.” “He’s given the impression that Trump’s hardline has worked, that Putin has offered concessions on territorial swaps … and that’s already a sign of this skillful ‘give and take’ — or illusion of ‘give and take” —which President Putin has deployed so successfully on many occasions in the past,” he said. Trump showed weakness A potential source of weakness for Trump as he heads into the meeting is that Putin will recognize that the U.S. president has, despite repeated threats, resisted heaping more punitive sanctions on Moscow even though it refused a ceasefire with Ukraine that was supported by both Washington and Kyiv. In fact, Trump has so far preferred to punish Russia’s friends and trading partners such as its oil buyer India — rather than Russia itself — with higher tariffs and the threat of “secondary sanctions.” “Putin is smart enough to recognize that Trump is turning up the heat, but it’s very significant that Trump decided to turn up the heat on his friend [Prime Minister] Narendra Modi in India, and not on Putin himself,” Fordham told CNBC. “It tells us that President Trump is very reluctant to actually put the pressure directly on Putin, so much so that he’s willing to jeopardize this relationship with India, which is a hugely important ally within the wider context of U.S.-China relations,” she added. Trump has also been accused of showing his cards to Russia by suggesting that Washington could entertain the notion of Ukraine “swapping” some territory with its neighbor, a suggestion that has provoked consternation in Europe, which has urged Trump not to concede too much to Putin. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told CNBC on Tuesday that Putin was stringing Trump along and was just ” pretending to negotiate .” CNBC has asked the Kremlin to respond to the claim. Russia’s economy helps But although Putin appears to be entering the talks from a position of strength rather than weakness — a position not many global leaders find themselves in when meeting Trump — the Russian president could arguably be looking for an off-ramp as Russia’s economy and citizens labor under the weight of international sanctions, labor shortages and rampant inflation, which even Putin described as “alarming.” ″[Putin] starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. They’re advancing,” Richard Portes, head of the economics faculty at the London Business School, told CNBC Monday. “On the other hand, from the economic point of view, he starts from a weak position. The Russian economy is not in very good shape. They’re running a significant fiscal deficit, partly because oil revenues are down very substantially, oil and gas [are down] because of the oil price. And … this is a weak economy,” Portes told CNBC’s ” Europe Early Edition. ” Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. trade representative, told CNBC that Putin could agree to a ceasefire, but only if Trump offers serious concessions on Russia’s oil exports, which have come under sanctions and restrictions, including an oil price cap. “I think if Putin comes in and says, ‘Alright, I’m willing to accept a ceasefire, but you got to relieve the pressure on my oil sales,’ well, that’s a deal that that could be talked about, right? That’s the president using leverage to get Putin to come to the table, to do something he was not willing to do before, which is to accept an unconditional ceasefire, and that would put an end to the fighting.” “If the president is able to come back from Alaska with a ceasefire, that will be a significant achievement, if it they start getting into trading territory at Ukraine’s expense, then it’s not going to be a very good or sustainable agreement,” Froman said.
