China manufacturing activity picks up in September — official PMI still in contraction

China’s official gauge for manufacturing activity showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in September as Beijing intensified its efforts aimed at curbing industrial overcapacity amid sluggish domestic demand and global trade disruptions.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.8, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, compared with expectations for 49.6, according to a Reuters poll. That reading, while still in contraction, was the strongest since March.

China’s official manufacturing PMI has stayed below the 50-benchmark separating growth from contraction since April as manufacturers have grappled with tepid domestic demand, exacerbated by higher U.S. tariffs that have hit Beijing’s exports to the world’s largest consumer market.

Private surveyor RatingDog’s manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 for September, beating economists’ forecast for 50.2 in a Reuters poll, marking its highest level since May.

The official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, edged lower to 52.9 in September from 53 in the prior month, while the RatingDog general services PMI eased to 50 from 50.3.

Private surveys, previously conducted by Caixin and S&P Global, have painted a better picture than official polls over the previous years as they have focused more on export-oriented manufacturers.

A meeting of China’s Politburo — composed of high-level members of the ruling Chinese Communist Party — in October is expected to offer some indication on Beijing’s economic policy plans in response to the slowdown in the third quarter, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“Since the GDP growth was above 5% in H1, the government may tolerate the slowdown in H2 as long as it doesn’t jeopardize the full year growth target of 5%,” Zhang added