Treasury yields move higher as markets look to faster economic growth in 2026
An iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) chart on the floor of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Friday, Aug. 1, 2025.
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U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Monday as traders began to anticipate slightly faster economic growth in 2026, helped in part by expectations that the Federal Reserve will again lower interest rates at the central bank’s final policy meeting of the year next week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was up around 7 basis points to 4.09%. The 30-year bond yield similarly climbed more than 7 basis points to 4.742%. The 2-year note yield was up about 4 basis points to 3.532%.
One basis point equals 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices.
Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a nearly 88% chance of a quarter percentage point cut in the fed funds rate by the U.S. central bank next week, to 3.50%-3.75%, up from just 63% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Looking ahead to next year, Bank of America on Monday said its economists expect “global growth that bottoms out, helped by rate cuts, less policy uncertainty and select fiscal boosts,” as well as a weaker U.S. dollar.
Investors will parse through several economic reports this week, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. The ADP Employment Report follows on Wednesday and will be the most up-to-date labor market data before the Fed meets on Dec. 9-10.
The ISM Services PMI is also out on Wednesday and weekly initial jobless claims will follow on Thursday. The delayed personal consumption expenditures index for September will cap off the week on Friday.
Fed officials are in a pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 10 FOMC decision, which makes economic data the focus for investors looking for hints about future interest rate policy.
