Russia’s charm offensive on Trump leaves Europe scrambling to win him back
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on Aug. 15, 2025 in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S.
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Russia appears to be relishing Europe and Ukraine’s discomfort after a week of outspoken criticism from both the White House and U.S. President Donald Trump.
The growing divide has seen the Kremlin and Russian state media lead a charm offensive praising Moscow’s “alignment” with Washington.
Russia has watched on as Washington has appeared to pour cold water on its alliances with Ukraine and Europe over the last week.
That began when the White House last Friday released its new national security strategy which questioned whether Europe could remain “reliable allies,” and said the U.S. should reestablish strategic stability with Russia.
Then Trump said this week in an unguarded interview with Politico that Europe was a “decaying” region with “weak” leaders. The president also backed fresh elections in Ukraine, saying it appeared increasingly undemocratic.
Separately, Trump also slammed Ukraine’s approach to peace talks, claiming earlier this week that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hadn’t even read the U.S.’ draft peace proposal to end the war, while Russia, Trump said, was “fine with it.”
Charm offensive
For Russia, that has meant going on a charm offensive to praise Trump and to promote a sense that Washington and Moscow are aligned on how to end the almost four-year war. That opportunity has only grown amid Trump’s open frustration with Ukraine and Europe’s leadership.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia appreciated Trump’s “desire for dialogue and for resolving the conflict in Ukraine” and that the two sides shared a “fundamental understanding that a lasting settlement is impossible without eliminating the root causes of the crisis.”
For Russia, those “root causes” of the war include NATO enlargement in eastern Europe, a pro-Western leadership in Ukraine and a desire to occupy the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, where pro-Russian separatists have been backed by Russia long before the current war started in 2022.
A trader watches as U.S. President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2025.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
As such, any U.S.-backed peace plan that eradicates some of those bugbears — and hands over the Donbas region to Russia and rules out Ukraine’s succession to NATO — as well as a deal that forces leadership elections in Ukraine, is music to Russia’s ears.
That’s in large part why Moscow has been so keen to align itself with Trump and the “original” U.S.-backed peace plan that was devised with its input and without Ukraine’s involvement.
Battle over Trump
Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European allies are desperately trying to keep Washington on side in order to prevent a potential loss of territory and sovereignty for Ukraine in a peace deal that could be forced on Kyiv, which could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s future security.
Left on the sidelines, European leaders have been trying to boost Ukraine’s chances of getting a good deal, with Zelenskyy holding a flurry of meetings with regional leaders this week in a bid to bolster the arguments for Kyiv’s “red lines” in any peace deal, mainly that Kyiv receives security guarantees as part of a peace deal, and that it does not have to cede land to Russia.
Showing a willingness to compromise, Ukraine has openly conceded that future NATO membership is a vanishingly thin prospect, and Zelenskyy has said he’s ready for the country to hold new elections if they can be held in a secure way. But security and territorial guarantees remain big sticking points and a hurdle to any deal with Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outside the West Wing of the White House on October 17, 2025, in Washington, DC.
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Ukraine and European leaders said Wednesday that “intensive work” will continue to reach a peace plan that works long term. The leaders of the U.K., France and Germany spoke to Trump yesterday about their efforts, and to reiterate their willingness to provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a post-war peacekeeing effort. Russia rejects that idea, saying foreign troops in Ukraine would be “legitimate targets.”
A meeting of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” is taking place on Thursday, however, with the allies keen to maintain momentum, and visibility, when it comes to reaching a resolution to end the conflit, and one that’s favorable to Ukraine and the wider region.
Eager to not be outdone, Russia’s Lavrov said Thursday that Moscow had sent the U.S. its own proposals on security guarantees and that Europe’s “anti-russian” efforts had failed.
“We insist that a package of agreements be reached on a strong, sustainable, long-term peace with security guarantees for all countries involved,” Lavrov said, in remarks reported by RIA Novosti.
“They [Europeans] wanted to inflict a strategic defeat on us, after which they could dictate their Western terms on issues that interested European capitals. But the plan for an anti-Russian blitzkrieg using Ukraine failed,” he said.
Washington is reportedly urging both sides to come to an agreement before Christmas, but there is skepticism that the deadline will be met.
“U.S. pressure will move talks forward but not lead to a quick deal,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a note Wednesday.
“The U.S.-originated peace plan can serve as the loose framework for a final deal. But Ukraine, with European backing, will continue to resist key concessions on territory and neutrality. And Moscow will also most likely reject a deal that Ukraine can accept,” they noted. adding:
“U.S. demands for a deal by Thanksgiving and now, reportedly, Christmas can get incremental movement by one side or the other. But it is unlikely to secure a near-term major breakthrough.”
Indeed, while Eurasia Group expects the odds of a ceasefire have increased, and they reduced the probability of its basecase “war continues” scenario from 75% to 65% between now and the end of June 2026, they also noted that Ukraine’s battlefield challenges, alongside mounting pressure from the U.S., have also increased the odds of a ‘Ukraine capitulation’ scenario from 5% to 25%.
