The next rare earths crunch? Top mining CEO warns copper supply challenges aren’t going anywhere
Copper supply constraints have led to soaring prices and stockpiling in 2025 – and according to the CEO of one of the world’s largest mining firms, elevated prices aren’t likely to climb down anytime soon. Copper prices hit a record high of $11,952 per metric ton on Friday, the latest record high this year driven by supply concerns, mining disruptions and fears of U.S. tariffs . Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended Wednesday’s session at $11,592 per metric ton. In New York, copper futures have surged by around 34% since the start of the year, putting them on track for their best year since 2009, when copper gained 137.34%. @HG.1 YTD line Copper futures Speaking to CNBC at the Conference de Paris in the French capital on Wednesday, Mike Henry, CEO of mining giant BHP stressed that copper is a “critically important” metal, underpinning the functioning of the everyday economy while also being a crucial component in decarbonization and digitalization technologies. The red metal is used in electrical equipment, construction and industrial machinery. “It’s about a $300-400 billion per annum market versus rare earths, which you all would have heard about, which is about $20 billion per annum. So it’s a very large market,” Henry said at the conference, which was organized by the Inernational Economic Forum of the Americas. Copper, like rare earth minerals — which also play a critical role in the production of various goods from semiconductors to military hardware — is coming under pressure as supply is being outpaced by surging demand. With “demand growing strongly,” Henry suggested it was possible that the bull run on copper could be extended for years to come. “We expect [demand’s] going to be up by 70% between now and 2050, but supply is becoming more and more difficult to bring on,” he told CNBC on Wednesday. “Fewer mines are being found. The mines that are being found are oftentimes smaller, lower grade in tougher jurisdictions, and so it’s hard to bring those mines on quickly.” BHP is the world’s biggest copper producer. CEO Henry said that over the course of the past year, the market had gone from a slight oversupply to bottlenecks, noting that 12 to 18 months ago market watchers were expecting 2025 to be “a little bit soft” for the red metal. “All it took was a few disruptions at a few copper mines around the world to all of a sudden send the market into deficit, and to see copper prices reach record highs,” he said. We’re expecting that between now and the end of the decade, that crunch is only going to get tighter.” Pressed on his expectations for prices, Henry stressed that predicting price moves is difficult. However, he also emphasized that a resolution to the supply shortages was not imminent. “What I can say with a high degree of confidence is that the market’s tight right now, and it doesn’t take much to send prices north,” he said, also noting that other metals — including gold and silver — had been on record-breaking runs this year. “Growing attention [on] the broader basket of commodities could be supportive for copper pricing as well,” Henry said. Read more Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues How to play further gains in copper using options on this mining stock Various market watchers have predicted that prices are likely to continue rising in 2026. UBS said in a late November note that it sees a “structural bull case unfolding” for the metal. “Copper (and aluminum) remains our top pick among industrial metals and is a key driver behind our upgrade of commodities to Attractive from Neutral,” Strategist Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider, head global FX and commodity at UBS Global Wealth Management, said. They hiked their price forecasts and now see copper hitting $12,000 per ton by the end of the first quarter of 2026, and $13,000 by the end of next year. In a note last week, analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expected weak supply to continue into 2026. “Based on our global copper coverage and latest company guidance, mine supply from the world’s largest producers is expected to drop ~3% in 2025 and rebound only 1% in 2026 (still below 2024 levels),” they said. The projected growth of around 1% does not account for typical disruptions, which could push global mine suply back into negative territory in 2026, the analysts said. They said they see the market in clear deficit, with supply at its weakest at the end of 2025 and in the first quarter of next year. Predicting peak prices in the first half of 2026, Deutsche’s researchers said mine supply could potentially recover from mid-2026, but this was “dependent on operational improvements / restarts at several large mines.” Meanwhile, Citi analysts said in a recent note that they expect to see hoarding of copper inventory by the U.S., giving the metal a target price of $13,000 per ton in early 2026. By the second quarter of next year, the investment bank’s analysts said copper could rise as high as $15,000.
