Coal India likely to report flat earnings in Q3 as online auction prices decline  

Analysts estimate Coal India’s net profit at Rs 7,173 crore, reflecting a 17% YoY decrease and a 6% sequential decline

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State-run mining giant Coal India is likely to report flat earnings for the December quarter on the back of moderation in e-auction prices, analysts said. The company will report its earnings on February 12.

Analysts estimate Coal India’s net profit at Rs 7,173 crore, reflecting a slump of 17 percent on-year and 6 percent on-quarter. Net sales are anticipated at Rs 34,778 crore, down 5 percent YoY but up 2 percent QoQ, while EBITDA is pegged at Rs 9,665 crore, marking a 13 percent YoY decrease and a 10 percent QoQ rise.

In 3QFY24, Coal India achieved an output of 199MT, a 10 percent annual growth, and sold 191MT of fuel, a 9 percent annual rise. JM Financial cites higher thermal additions and robust power demand for the strong production volume.

The e-auction premium dropped to 70 percent from 150 percent on sufficient coal supply. In the none months of FY24, Coal India output reached 532 MT, making an 11 percent YoY increase, surpassing 99 percent of the FY24 target of 780 MT. Analysts suggest Coal India could potentially sell up to 1 billion tonnes of coal by FY28 if this demand continues to rise.

In FY24, Coal India targets 780 MT production/offtake, a 77 MT increase from FY23, contingent on increased electricity demand and rake availability. The company plans a Rs 60,000 crore capex over the next four fiscal years to achieve a 1 BTPA capacity. Despite shrinking e-auction premiums, the quantity sold through auctions is growing, aiming to reach 20 percent of the total value, analysts said.

Key factors to monitor include sustained power demand, international coal price trends, and the speed of the transition to clean energy. Management’s guidance on production, e-auction volumes, and premium for FY24 and FY25 is crucial for insights.

Analysts are optimistic about Coal India due to robust growth in production volume fuelled by strong end-use demand, high e-auction premiums, and a positive outlook for future volume growth. Additionally, favourable valuations and dividend yields contribute to the bullish sentiment. Potential FSA price revisions may further enhance the realisations and earnings.

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