Russia claimed the West, Kyiv ordered the Moscow terror attack. Now it has the problem of proving it

Russia has been firming up its narrative that Ukraine was behind a deadly terrorist attack in Moscow last week, a move that was widely expected by political experts who said Russia would likely use the tragedy to further domestic support for the war against Ukraine.

It’s gone one step further, however, with senior Kremlin officials claiming that the West conspired with Ukraine to carry out the attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue last Friday in which gunmen killed 139 people.

An investigation into the attack is ongoing, but the latest, outlandish accusations give Moscow a problem: It now has to find the evidence to back up its unsubstantiated claims.

What’s particularly awkward for the Kremlin is that the Islamic State militant group has already claimed responsibility for the attack. Eight suspects, mostly nationals of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, have been charged with terrorism offences and remanded in custody ahead of trial.

“Going forward, it is important to watch whether Russian investigators present any evidence of any alleged Ukrainian/Western involvement,” said Andrius Tursa, central and eastern Europe advisor at consultancy Teneo.

“In such a case, Putin would likely have to follow through on his promises to punish those responsible for the attack, which could escalate the war in Ukraine and heighten tensions with the West,” he said.

Ukraine denies any involvement in the attack, saying it was “absolutely predictable” that Moscow would look to blame it. The White House said Ukraine had “no involvement whatsoever” in the attack and that any claim to the contrary was “Kremlin propaganda.” The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on social media platform X “Russia’s claims about the West and Ukraine on the Crocus City Hall attack are utter nonsense.”

“Of course Ukraine,” Patrushev answered, according to a Google-translated article from news agency RIA Novosti.

On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed the U.S.′ initial rejection of any Ukrainian involvement was suspicious and said the Islamic State group was created by the West. Yet, the Kremlin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the alleged Ukraine link, or to state how Russia would respond if it confirmed Ukraine’s involvement.

Peskov told CNBC Wednesday that the Kremlin is awaiting the results of an investigation before it comments, stating in an email: “An investigation is underway. The final version has not yet been announced.”

Political analysts say Moscow appears desperate to deflect attention from the fact that its intelligence services failed to spot or prevent the Moscow terror plot, and ignored a warning from U.S. intelligence several weeks ago that an attack could be imminent.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials appear to be struggling to maintain a consistent rhetorical line about the Crocus City Hall attack, indicating that the Kremlin has not fully figured out how to reconcile its information operations with the reality of its intelligence and law enforcement failure,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted Tuesday.

“Putin and other senior officials have not fully coalesced around the false narrative that Ukraine somehow conducted the March 22 attack,” the ISW said, noting that the “oscillation between blaming Ukraine outright one day and then avoiding the issue the following day suggests that the Kremlin has not yet established a templated line on how to discuss the attack, likely partially as a result of the shock felt by the Russian elite in its aftermath.”