‘Best idea…ever’: Fund manager predicts 10-fold rise in this e-commerce stock
Jumia Technologies , a pan-African e-commerce company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, could see its value increase tenfold or more in the coming years, according to hedge fund manager Josh Koren. Jumia, often described as the “Amazon of Africa,” operates an e-commerce platform across 10 African countries . The company’s stock has surged over 270% year-to-date, but Koren, a portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Musketeer Capital , believes it still has significant room to run. “This is by far the idea I’m most passionate about. I think it’s the best idea I’ve ever found in my whole career,” Koren told CNBC Pro and added that the stock is “by far the largest” position in his fund. Jumia’s stock has experienced significant volatility since its initial public offering in 2019. After listing at $14.50 per share, the stock soared to an all-time high of around $62 in 2021, according to FactSet data. However, the pandemic-driven enthusiasm for e-commerce stocks was relatively short-lived. Concerns about the company’s path to profitability and a broader sell-off in growth and technology stocks sent Jumia’s shares into a steep decline. By October 2023, the stock was trading below $3 — a 95% drop from its peak. JMIA 5Y line Now, though, it has rebounded more than 300% and on Monday shares were trading around $13. The company has a new executive team, and its latest financial results show improvement. Koren pointed to Jumia’s recent quarterly results as evidence of the company’s potential. Jumia reported that it has dramatically reduced its losses, with cash flow from operations turning positive for the first time. “At this stage of the company’s lifecycle, people expect them to spend and lose money. They’re doing the opposite,” Koren noted. “The cash utilization is getting way better going forward, and their margins have been expanding.” Despite the recent stock surge, Jumia’s market capitalization remains just over a billion dollars. Koren believes this valuation vastly undervalues the company, given its growth potential and strategic position in the African market. “This company right now is only a $1.2 billion company. That is insane for what it is,” Koren said. He projects that Jumia could reach a $10 billion valuation within two to three years, potentially hitting up to $50 billion in 10 years. “There’s no reason why this isn’t like a $30 to $50 billion company, because every other geography in the world has at least $50 to $60 billion in e-commerce market cap, if not more,” he added. “The U.S. has a trillion [dollar e-commerce market cap company]. China has hundreds of billions. Southeast Asia even has 100 billion. Africa has zero.” However, investing in Jumia is not without risks. As well as huge stock volatility, the company has not yet achieved consistent profitability, and its reported sales declined in U.S. dollar terms in 2023 compared to 2022. Koren attributes this to the intentional streamlining of the business and currency headwinds, which he believes are now turning into tailwinds. Jumia also faces challenges unique to African businesses, including infrastructure limitations and currency volatility in some of its markets. Koren argues that these challenges are opportunities, however, pointing to increasing investment in African internet infrastructure from major tech companies and Jumia’s partnership with Elon Musk’s Starlink as positive developments. “All money is flowing towards this market in terms of improving internet quality and infrastructure and tech backbone,” Koren said. “This is the best internet platform that is a direct beneficiary of that.” Echoing the hedge fund manager’s views earlier this month, analysts at investment bank Benchmark initiated coverage on Jumia with a Buy rating and a $14 price target. “As a leading African e-commerce platform, JMIA is poised to benefit from a demographic transformation set to catalyze multi-year and potentially multi-decade e-commerce growth in the region,” Benchmark analysts led by Fawne Jiang said in a note to clients on July 9.
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