Live updates: Harris neck-and-neck with Trump in polls; VP running mate search intensifies

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— Silvia Amaro

Vice President Harris will likely win the Democratic nomination but still lose the presidency to Republican rival Trump, according to David Roche, president and global strategist at Quantum Strategy.

“I think she’ll definitely be the [Democratic] candidate because if she wasn’t the presidential candidate of the Democrats, there would be a degree of chaos, including affecting funding, which would mean the Democrats would be wiped across the board,” he told “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday, noting that this impact would also affect the Democrats’ position in Congress and the House of Representatives.

But despite that forecast on Harris securing the formal Democratic endorsement and foreseeing a “closer race than people imagined” during the fall elections, Roche stressed, “I don’t think she can beat Trump.”

“I suspect that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. And markets will start to wonder about the costs to that, as we get closer to the election. Costs in terms of security policy, like say NATO and Europe, costs in terms of Taiwan, costs in terms of tariffs, which are extremely detrimental to the U.S. economy,” he said, adding that investors will likely adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach for the time being.

Some, he noted, might “even actually rejoice to some extent in the likelihood of a Trump victory, because they may see this as a way of getting more shovelfuls of money pushed their way.”

— Ruxandra Iordache

Vice President Harris, who has emerged as a favorite to clinch the Democratic nomination in the two days since launching her campaign, may have to expedite selecting a running mate, says Syga Thomas, CEO of Ensah Advisory Partners.

“That pick’s going to have to come rather quickly,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday, noting that this decision will have to be made before the Democratic National Committee’s convention in Chicago, which will take place Aug. 19-22.

Several names have been floated as potential running mates, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper.

“Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro being a key one, in sort of a swing state that could prove to be very important,” Thomas said, but added that the possibility of an unexpected pick should not be discounted.

“I think it’s important to take a step back and say, potentially, she might come out and do something that is totally different,” Thomas said. “So, something that is not being touted now. So, she could come and make it an all-women ticket, which is certainly, with [Michigan Gov.] Gretchen Whitmer, which would certainly be an interesting way, sort of, to approach the ticket.”

— Ruxandra Iordache

First lady Jill Biden will lead a presidential delegation to the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, scheduled to take place July 26, according to a White House statement.

It will mark the first major public appearance for Jill Biden, who been supporting her husband, President Joe Biden, since his decision to drop his reelection bid.

Douglas Emhoff, the husband of Vice President Harris, will helm a delegation attending the close of the games on Aug. 11.

Two other presidential delegations due to attend the opening and closing ceremonies of the Paralympic Games will be announced at a later time.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Vice President Harris’ newly launched presidential campaign will lead to a closer race against Republican candidate and former President Trump, according to Aaron Anderson, member of Fisher Investments’ Investment Policy Committee.

“I think the knee-jerk reaction or interpretation of the wild political scene that we’ve seen here in the U.S. is that the race just got a little bit closer, maybe the potential for one party sweeping heavily in one direction or another has probably diminished a bit, and so it’s kind of back to business as usual,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday, stressing that this has translated into big growth stocks performing well this year to date.

“It does look increasingly likely that [Harris] will be the [Democratic] candidate, but that’s certainly not a sure thing as this point,” Anderson added. “But what I would say is, this is a pretty modest change from what the ticket looked like previously.”

He emphasized that both Harris and Trump are known quantities to investors, as each politician spent four years in top White House leadership positions.

“Here you’ve got two politicians that are well known by the marketplace, I think [it’s] hard to get a surprise out of the election, should that happen,” Anderson noted.

— Ruxandra Iordache

S&P 500 futures eased 0.14% at 8:52 a.m. London time in the Tuesday premarket session as investors shifted focus toward anticipated earnings reports, including giants such as General Motors, Coca-Cola, Alphabet and Tesla.

Traders have been keeping an eye on the U.S. political background after President Biden relinquished his reelection bid and endorsed Vice President Harris, whose rapidly launched campaign rallied key Democratic pledges and grassroot donations. The S&P 500 on Monday posted its best day since June 5 on a rebound in tech shares.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the White House this week to meet U.S. President Joe Biden, amid pressure to end the war that has devastated the Gaza Strip since October.

Israel, which maintains it does not target civilians and only pursues Palestinian militant group Hamas, has faced international criticism over the proportionality of its military response in the Gaza enclave and harm to the Palestinian people.

The U.S. has staunchly supported Israel throughout the conflict, but has increasingly also urged Netanyahu’s administration to minimize civilian casualties. Both sides simultaneously pursue the release of dozens of hostages that remain in Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, which include American nationals. The visit could ease the path to an elusive ceasefire deal with Hamas, which the U.S., Qatar and Egypt have been mediating.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu is set to meet with Biden, whose career he praised profusely following the president’s decision to drop his reelection bid. Vice President Harris will be unable to preside over Netanyahu’s scheduled Wednesday address before a joint Congress session because of a trip to Indianapolis, her aide said, according to Reuters.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Trump criticized Harris’ record on immigration, once more labeling her as a “Border Czar” in an update on his Truth Social platform.

Trump claimed that Harris “never visited the Border,” in a likely reference to the U.S.-Mexico perimeter, which has seen record levels of illegal crossings over the past year.

Republican rivals are likely to lash Harris with further criticism on immigration — a key concern for U.S. voters — with Trump alleging that the vice president’s performance “gave us the WORST and MOST DANGEROUS Border anywhere in the World.”

Back in 2021, Harris was tasked with helming the diplomatic mission to address the “root causes of migration in Central America” — but not to oversee or enforce immigration policy, or the border itself.

— Ruxandra Iordache

After a flurry of key Democratic endorsements in the first full day since her rapid campaign launch, Vice President Harris said in a statement that she looks forward to accepting her party’s formal nomination.

“When I announced my campaign for President, I said I intended to go out and earn this nomination. Tonight, I am proud to have secured the broad support needed to become our party’s nominee, and as a daughter of California, I am proud that my home state’s delegation helped put our campaign over the top. I look forward to formally accepting the nomination soon,” she said.

Harris also made her case against the rival candidacy of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has once more gained the Republican nomination.

“This election will present a clear choice between two different visions. Donald Trump wants to take our country back to a time before many of us had full freedoms and equal rights. I believe in a future that strengthens our democracy, protects reproductive freedom and ensures every person has not just the opportunity to get by, but to go ahead,” she said.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Harris has secured written or spoken endorsements from a simple majority of the Democratic party’s pledged convention delegates, NBC News estimates.

The threshold number of delegates is 1,976. NBC estimates that Harris has received statements of support from groups representing 1,992 delegates, as of 10:30 p.m. ET.

The exact dates and process for the Democratic party’s nominating roll call vote will be finalized at a meeting Wednesday afternoon of the Rules Committee.

— Christina Wilkie

Read CNBC’s blog updates covering Kamala Harris’ campaign on July 22 here.