China’s factory activity expands for the first time since April, official survey shows

BEIJING — China’s official purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.

The data beat expectations for 49.9, according to a Reuters poll. September’s reading was 49.8. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4.

“I expect the economic momentum to improve moderately in Q4 as monetary and fiscal policies [loosen],” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.

China’s parliament standing committee is scheduled to meet next week, and is widely expected to release details on fiscal stimulus after the gathering ends on Nov. 8.

The sub-index for production came in at 52 for October, while that of new orders was 50. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month.

The statistics bureau’s PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. That was up from 50 in September but below August’s 50.3 print.

The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.

A survey released Wednesday by the U.S.-based China Beige Book of 1,436 Chinese businesses between Oct. 18 and 25 found that manufacturing output improved from a year ago. New domestic and export orders also picked up, with export orders from the U.S. falling less sharply in October.

The Caixin China general manufacturing PMI for October is due out Friday, while the Caixin China general services PMI is scheduled for release Nov. 5.

China’s economic growth has slowed, dragged down by tepid consumer demand and a real estate slump. Exports have been a rare bright spot.

Stocks rallied after a series of high-profile stimulus announcements in the last several weeks, including a meeting led in late September by Chinese President Xi Jinping that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support.