Investors are pumping money into the Trump trade. Here’s how it did last time
Wall Street has been pumping money into the Trump trade, but investors should be wary before committing capital based on campaign promises, if history is any indication. Investors have been pouring money into stocks tied to Donald Trump’s policies in the weeks before the presidential election and the days since, hoping the President-elect’s return to the White House will favor some companies over others. Bank stocks have surged, with the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up about 13% this month. Small-caps surged, with the Russell 2000 gaining about 9%. Bitcoin topped $93,000 for the first time . But that doesn’t mean those bets will pay off, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. In fact, traders raising their exposure to asset classes according to what they assume will win under a Trump (or Biden) administration have been disappointed with past results. “For those investors hoping campaign promises translate into policy-targeted asset outperformance, we would urge caution,” Wells Fargo’s Austin Pickle, investment strategy analyst, wrote on Monday. “There are several instructive examples where investors put too much emphasis on perceived benefits of potential policy changes, only to see policy fail to materialize or policy benefits fail to translate into anticipated returns.” Small-caps, real estate and traditional energy companies — all considered beneficiaries of Trump’s policies — initially rallied following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, only to underperform over the president-elect’s first term, Wells Fargo Investment Institute found. To be sure, a candidate’s policies can be consequential, but should be weighed against broader growth in the economy, whether earnings are expanding and the course of interest rates — all of which more directly influence the equity market, read the Wells Fargo note. On Wednesday, the major averages were little changed in late afternoon trading, losing some steam after their surge to new all-time highs over the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 44,000 for the first time, and the S & P 500 soared past 6,000. Here’s a breakdown of different asset classes and how they performed in the past, and more recently. Smallcaps Smallcap stocks, as represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), are expected to benefit under Trump because of his pro-business policies. From Election Day 2016 through year-end, the asset class outperformed the S & P 500 by 8% on a relative basis. One year after Election Day, however, small-caps gained only a bit more than 2% relative to the broader index. In fact, from Election Day 2016 through Election Day 2020, smallcaps tumbled more than 22%. This month, the IWM has surged 9%. IWM 1M mountain IWM Real estate Then there’s the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) , which could get a boost from Trump’s promises to cut back on regulations and loosen permitting requirements tied to the housing market. In 2016, however, the XLRE fell more than 4% relative to the S & P 500, immediately after Election Day through the end of that calendar year. Expand the timeline to one year out from Election Day, and the ETF underperformed the broader index by 11%. Over the entirety of Trump’s term, the sector tumbled more than 40%. In November, the XLRE is slightly down on the month. Energy Energy stocks are expected to get a huge boost from Trump, who made energy a focus of his presidential campaign , and promised to “drill, baby, drill.” However, the sector, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) , was a sore spot for the duration of Trump’s presidency. On Election Day 2016 through to the remainder of that year, the XLE gained 4% relative to the S & P 500. But then, one year from that’s year’s Election Day, it tumbled 11%. Across Trump’s entire four-year term, energy stocks plunged. This month, the XLE gained 7%. XLE 1M mountain XLE — CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
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