Chip stocks just formed a worrying chart pattern
The early part of 2025 has not been kind to semiconductor stocks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down more than 9% year to date. Over the past month, it has lost about 11%. This comes in stark contrast to the fund’s performance of the past two years. SMH rallied 38.5% in 2024 and 72.3% in 2023, as investors loaded up on semiconductor stocks to capitalize on the artificial intelligence craze. This year’s moves have led to a bearish chart pattern for the SMH. The fund’s 50-day moving average this week fell below its 200-day counterpart, forming a dreaded death cross. This phenomenon is seen by technical analysts as a sign of further declines to come. That marks the first time in more than two years that the SMH has formed a death cross. The group is struggling with investors cashing in some AI profits while global trade tensions rise. This week, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese imports. Canada and China retaliated with levies of their own, though Mexico got a one-month reprieve from the duties. What is troubling for semis is even if the chips are assembled in the U.S., many of the components used are imported, noted Chris Miller, professor at Tufts Fletcher School. “The complexity of the supply chains makes devising a tariff policy around carve-outs very, very difficult, which is why the industry is hoping there won’t be any changes at all — because they’ve been structured around the assumption that you can move goods back and forth across borders without this type of tariff uncertainty,” Miller said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Take a look at the worst-performing SMH members this week (as of 4 p.m.): Marvell Technology : -21.3% Intel : -12.6% Nvidia : -11.5% Broadcom : -10% On Semiconductor : -6.7% — CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed reporting.
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