Bitcoin is expected to rally further. Here’s how the pros are investing
Bitcoin had an eventful week. The cryptocurrency surged past the $120,000 threshold for the very first time on Monday as crypto investors anticipated U.S. legislation that could could boost institutional demand. Bitcoin rose over 3% to a record high of $123,153.22 on Monday , but has since lost some steam. It was seen up 1.08% at $119,833.56 at 3:45 a.m. ET on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap . The pullback in prices came after cryptocurrency-related bills were blocked in the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 13 Republicans voting with Democrats to block the motion in a 196-223 vote. Bitcoin prices started picking up again late Wednesday after some ” no” votes flipped to yesses , and the chamber approved the rules of debate for three crypto bills. Those include a bill to regulate stablecoins , a crypto market structure bill, and a bill prohibiting the U.S. Federal Reserve from issuing its own digital currency. Market watchers CNBC Pro spoke to remain bullish on bitcoin and see potential for the cryptocurrency to climb even further in the rest of the year. “The most notable thing to me is that bitcoin has been closing at over $100,000 for the last two months. I think it is a very clear sign of both retail and institutional interest in this asset,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at crypto index fund Hashdex. “Bitcoin’s sustained strong performance has seen investors looking beyond questions like its volatility to really start asking questions about what’s going on with this asset,” he added. Bitcoin has surged over 28% since the start of the year, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Gold — a classic safe-haven asset — has risen around 27%, while the broad-based S & P 500 index has added just 7.07% in the same time. Bitcoin-focused ETFs have also gained a lot of interest this year. For instance, the net asset value of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has returned 27.69% this year as of July 14 , significantly higher than the 7.31% generated by the investment management firm’s iShares Core S & P 500 ETF . “Bitcoin is maturing as an asset. It is now the world’s seventh largest asset and second largest commodity behind gold, making it too large to ignore,” said Matt Kaufman, senior vice president and head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, citing data from CoinMarketCap. Given its “low correlation with traditional assets,” bitcoin acts as a “diversification mechanism,” he added. Higher prices O’Shea expects bitcoin prices to hit $140,000 by the end of the year. That represents a nearly 17% surge from current prices. His optimism is fueled by the conversations around regulatory approvals for bitcoin. And bitcoin’s role as a store of value has also grown this year following a weakening U.S. dollar as well as the U.S.’ high fiscal debt, which remains in the trillions , O’Shea noted. He added that speculation over Jerome Powell’s position as chairman of the Federal Reserve — in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to fire him and subsequent denials — has also been “really good” in boosting investments in risk assets such as bitcoin. Looking at these factors collectively makes his $140,000 estimate a “pretty reasonable call,” O’Shea said. That, however, is still lower than calls by others who expect it to hit $160,000 or even $210,000 in the next few months . How to invest While bitcoin’s blistering rally has piqued investor interest, concerns about the volatility of the digital asset and whether it is headed for a bubble still persist. Calamos’ Kaufman notes that the volatility in bitcoin has historically been three to five times that of the S & P 500 index. He estimates that the cryptocurrency’s volatility can be as high as 60% a year, remarkably higher than the 13% to 14% for gold. As for returns, bitcoin can fluctuate between gains or losses of around 40%, while that of the S & P 500 benchmark typically hover around 10% to 12%, Kaufman noted. “With high risk comes high reward – that is no different for bitcoin. That’s why investors want to be a part of the asset class, but don’t necessarily want to be part of the risks,” Kaufman added. He suggests investing in bitcoin through ETFs, which offer “protected or risk-managed versions” of an asset that is regulated by an exchange board. Hashdex’s O’Shea, likewise, said ETFs are a more stable way of getting exposure to bitcoins than having self-custody of the asset. Both Calamos and Hashdex offer bitcoin-focused ETFs, such as Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF, Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF, Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF and Hashdex Nasdaq ETF. Calamos’ Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF — which looks to capture upside returns of bitcoin, while protecting against all losses — has returned 1.16% since the start of the year till July 17. Meanwhile, Hasdex’s ETF has returned 26.96% so far this year, compared with 27.63% returns of the Nasdaq bitcoin reference price. O’Shea suggested that investors allocate around 1% to 3% of their portfolio to bitcoin for now, with a view to increasing it to around 10% in the next few years.
