Trump’s penalty threat puts India in a bind over Russian oil

India is navigating a tricky balancing act after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a “penalty” over its continued imports of Russian oil — a trade that New Delhi appears reluctant to end anytime soon.

Despite Trump telling reporters Friday that he “heard” India would halt purchases, officials in New Delhi have remained noncommittal. Foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the country decides its energy import sources “based on the price at which oil is available in the international market and depending on the global situation at that time.”

“The Indians must be having some confusion” following Trump’s threat — a reversal from the more tolerant approach taken under the Biden administration, Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

“Now we’re flipping around and saying, ‘What are you doing taking all this Russian oil?'” McNally said.

In March 2022 — a month after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — Daleep Singh, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser for international economics in the Biden administration, reportedly said that “friends don’t set red lines” and “there is no prohibition at present on energy imports from Russia.” 

“What we would not like to see is a rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia as it relates to energy or any other exports that are currently being prohibited by us or by other aspects of the international sanctions regime,” Singh said.

On July 30, Trump announced that India would face a 25% tariff beginning Aug. 1, along with an unspecified “penalty” for buying Russian oil and military equipment.

But analysts suggest that India, which is the third-largest energy consumer in the world, isn’t blinking for now. Reuters reported that there are no immediate changes planned to India’s long-term contracts with Russian suppliers, citing two anonymous Indian government sources that did not wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Russia has become the leading oil supplier to India since the war in Ukraine began, increasing from just under 100,000 barrels per day before the invasion, or a 2.5% share of total imports, to more than 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, or 39%. According to the International Energy Agency, 70% of Russian crude was exported to India in 2024.

India’s energy minister Hardeep Singh Puri defended New Delhi’s actions in a July 10 interview with CNBC, saying that it helped stabilize global prices and was even encouraged by the U.S.

“If people or countries had stopped buying at that stage, the price of oil would have gone up to 130 dollars a barrel. That was a situation in which we were advised, including by our friends in the United States, to please buy Russian oil, but within the price cap.”

Russian oil exports had been capped at $60 per barrel in December 2022 by the Group of Seven nations, representing the world’s top economies, while the European Union had lowered the price cap to just above $47 per barrel in July.

Still, pressure is mounting. Vishnu Varathan, Managing Director at Mizuho Securities, said that the U.S. threats present a “clear and present danger” to India. He said that New Delhi is likely to remain non-committal on oil purchases as it assesses the trade-offs of this “Russia option” as a bargaining chip.

India will need to scour the global market for comparable oil bargains with Russian oil, Varathan, who is also the head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan, added.

New Delhi could explore alternatives, including Iran — if an exemption from the U.S. can be negotiated — as well as a few other producers “either within or outside of the OPEC+ that have been pressured by the U.S,” Varathan said.

The OPEC+ bloc had agreed on Sunday to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.

India is going to face a tough choice, Rapidan’s McNally said.

“Trump is serious. He’s frustrated with Putin… India is going to have a tough choice to make, but it’s hard to see them continuing to import that a million and a half barrels [of] Russian crude if Donald Trump decides to really put the whole relationship on the line over it.”