Why the chocolate in your holiday candy could be ‘fake’ this year
Planet A Foods’ ChoViva chocolate alternative
Planet A Foods
If you’re unwrapping chocolate this holiday season, it might not contain any actual cocoa.
Market turbulence, ethical concerns and sustainability questions have sparked a movement among some chocolate makers to scrap cocoa in favor of alternative ingredients — prompting calls that the real deal could soon become a “luxury” for consumers.
Market upheaval
Poor agricultural conditions in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire — the world’s leading cocoa producers — have damaged crop yields in recent years, sending cocoa prices on a rollercoaster ride. After surging to all-time highs of more than $12,000 toward the end of last year, cocoa futures have tumbled more than 50% over the course of 2025 amid tentative signs of crop recovery.
Cocoa futures
Price volatility has left businesses in the industry on edge, and it’s ultimately found its way into consumer goods, with data from Circana and the U.S. Bureau for Labor Statistics showing chocolate prices surged 30% in the year to October.
In its third-quarter earnings report, Mondelez International — the maker of Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone — flagged “volatility of cocoa” and its “ability to effectively hedge against” related cost pressures as potential problems that could derail the company from meeting its financial targets.
As manufacturers grapple with that unpredictability, some are opting to reduce their exposure to the cocoa market by shaking up their ingredient mix.
Earlier this year, a change to the composition of McVitie’s Club and Penguin candy bars made waves in the U.K., when it was reported that the products could no longer be referred to as chocolate. Both products must now be labeled “chocolate flavored,” after parent company Pladis cut the cocoa content in a bid to reduce costs.
‘Real’ chocolate becoming a luxury
Pladis declined to comment on whether the changes had impacted sales when contacted by CNBC.
However, according to Massimo Sabatini, co-founder and CEO of Italian startup Foreverland, a move away from cocoa is gaining traction among international confectioners, so much so that it could become the norm to see “fake” chocolate used in more budget-friendly products. Foreverland uses carob, pumpkin seeds, and chickpeas to produce a chocolate-like product that’s sold to companies producing confectionery, baked goods, and ice creams.
“In the chocolate space there are many products, from [bars] to products in which cocoa is not really the protagonist but a participant,” he told CNBC, referring to goods like cookies, chocolate flavored cereal and chocolate-coated snacks. “I believe the alternative chocolate will substitute this big market, while [pure chocolate bars] will be more and more a luxury product.”
Sabatini pointed to the recent Dubai chocolate trend to illustrate his point, noting that some of these chocolate bars were selling for as much as 80 euros ($93.09) per kilogram.
“[The chocolate market] is already going in this direction,” he argued.
On top of the pricing pressure, Foreverland and other alternative makers tout their products as solutions to longstanding concerns about sustainability and ethical procurement in the cocoa industry.
“If you compare this alternative to other alternatives on the market, like a plant-based burger, chocolate is used in so many different applications, while a burger is a burger,” Sabatini said.
“Chocolate can be a snack, can be a bar, can be a biscuit, can be whatever. There are hundreds of different products in which chocolate is not a protagonist, in which alternative chocolate can really be a solution, to bring more sustainable products on the market, but at the same time depressurize the cocoa supply chain.”
Drew Geraghty, a New York-based commodity broker at ICAP, told CNBC that despite signs of price recovery on the futures market, pure chocolate could continue to command high prices for some time to come.
Large cocoa users typically lock in prices far in advance, often covering eight to ten months of production, which gives them more control over price risk, but Geraghty said smaller manufacturers don’t have that flexibility, so they usually only hedge three to six months out.
Futures are contracts in which the buyer of the contract agrees to buy something — in this case, cocoa — for a set price on a set date. Cocoa futures for March delivery were last seen trading at $5,897 a ton in New York.
Geraghty noted that manufacturers who bought futures eight months ago were buying the higher prices seen throughout late 2024 and early 2025.
“If you look back when the prices really skyrocketed in 2023 and 2024 and early ’25, the price on the shelf did not respond as quickly because the end users were still getting through their lower price futures cover — what they bought in the futures market six to eight months ago was going to dictate pricing,” he explained.
“Cheaper prices today, with the market being down, say 50% from the beginning of the year, that will translate into cheaper prices six to eight months down the road on the retail side.”
Jessica Karch, the marketing manager for German firm Planet A Foods — which makes a chocolate alternative derived from sunflower seeds — agreed that cocoa alternatives will become increasingly prevalent in the future.
“We do believe that the issues that we see currently in the supply chain of cocoa won’t go away,” she said. “So, the prices might stabilize to a certain point, but it will not go back to how [cheap] it was in the past.”
Planet A Foods’ ChoViva chocolate alternative
Planet A Foods
Karch said Planet A was already seeing growing demand, and noted that there was an increasing variety of alternatives coming onto the market.
“We do love chocolate, we do not want to replace chocolate, but we see a growing gap as well,” she added. “Because on the one hand, you have the issues in the supply chain, but on the other hand, you have the demand growing, especially in countries like China and India, and that’s why we see a gap, and we want to help fill that gap.”
Market ‘PTSD’ driving alternatives market
Both Karch and Sabatini told CNBC that demand was rising for their products. And they aren’t alone in the market — a number of startups, including the U.K.’s Nukoko and America’s Voyage Foods — offer what the former calls “cocoa-free chocolate.”
Natasha Linhart, CEO of fast-moving consumer goods wholesaler Atlante, told CNBC that chocolate alternatives would likely become more prevalent in “specific niches and hybrid applications.”
“Cocoa-free or fermentation-based masses are increasingly being used in coatings, fillings and bakery to substitute part of the cocoa content,” she said. “Many manufacturers are already diluting cocoa by shifting their mix towards ‘filled’ products. Brands like Milka, for instance, have expanded ranges where a significant share of the bar is filled with yoghurt cream or rice crispies, lowering the cocoa intensity while keeping the perception of indulgence and value.”
Linhart said she expected to see more products where traditional cocoa is complemented with fillings to manage cost and supply risk.
“However, for mainstream chocolate tablets, cocoa will remain the backbone of the category, because of taste expectations and the emotional weight attached to ‘real chocolate,'” she said.
ICAP’s Geraghty said that due to “PTSD in the market,” cocoa alternatives were likely to be increasingly used wherever manufacturers can get away with it.
“At one point, cocoa butter was three times the price of cocoa futures, so cocoa futures were at $9,000, $10,000 a ton, and you were looking at cocoa butter at $27,000 to $30,000 a ton — massively expensive,” he said.
“So [manufacturers] scramble — you make a smaller bar size, you find substitutes where you can. Even though prices have halved, [they’ll be thinking] why should we spend that when we could substitute shea butter or some compound chocolate?”
