G20 foreign ministers’ meet: A debate of the deaf?

A tense, if not acrimonious, meeting is expected to be held next week when foreign ministers of the Group of Twenty (G20) countries gather in Delhi to discuss the Ukraine war.

The conflict, which has now entered its second year, has adversely impacted a large number of people, especially those in the poor and developing nations of the world.

The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, and the other foreign ministers at the G20 will be in the same room along with the host, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, to discuss ways to address major challenges of the world, particularly the ongoing conflict in Europe.

An optimistic view of the meeting, to be held between March 1 to 3, is to expect a strong appeal resulting from the foreign ministers’ conference for a cessation of violence and restoration of peace in Ukraine at the earliest. But the hard part of such an outcome will be to get the foreign ministers, who are sharply divided over the Ukraine war, to agree on how to arrive at peace.

Major global challenges like spiralling food and energy prices, growing debt, and poor economic recovery post lockdown are the other key issues on the agenda. But the talks are going to be dominated by the Ukraine war.

The G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali last year under the Indonesian presidency ended in sharp exchanges and walkouts. There was no joint communique as the members had failed to come to an agreement on the text.

Next week’s meeting has been preceded by a series of important developments. Some weeks back, the Group of Seven (G7) countries, whose members are also part of the G20, had met in Munich and expressed their strong commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight to drive out the Russian army from its territory. They also renewed their demand for the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory.

US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv soon after and assured his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, of the US and NATO’s firm commitment to support it against Russian aggression.

Subsequently, Biden had also held a meeting with leaders of NATO’s eastern flank to discuss the ongoing war and how to step-up support for Ukraine.

Biden’s meetings had coincided with a visit to Russia by China’s top diplomat and President Xi Jinping’s close advisor on foreign policy, Wang Yi. The visiting Chinese leader held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top advisors.

This came at a time when President Putin had announced Russia’s decision to pull out of the New START treaty and renew nuclear tests.

The series of meetings on both sides accompanied growing apprehension in the west that Russian forces were likely to increase their offensive against Ukraine to take advantage of the thaw in the winter snow.

The G20 foreign ministers’ conclave comes a few days after China has come out with a peace plan for Ukraine. At last month’s Munich Security Conference, Wang Yi told the gathering that China would continue to stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue regarding the Ukraine crisis.

India, the current G20 host, has been calling for a cessation of violence and a return to negotiations to find a peaceful solution ever since the conflict began.

Indian leaders have appealed to both the Russian and Ukrainian sides a number of times. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had even spoken to President Putin during their meeting in Uzbekistan last September on the sidelines of the SCO summit, and had told the Russian premier that this was not the “era of war.”

There are expectations among Ukraine’s western backers that India and China, which have strong and close relations with Russia, could convince it to end the war.

The expectations of an appeal for peace emanating from the foreign ministers’ meet has gathered strength following Wang Yi’s remarks and the peace document recently released by China, which suggests a roadmap for the cessation of hostilities and post-war reconstruction.

In the 12 points laid out by China for peace in Ukraine, it has stressed that the international community should stay committed to promoting peace and help the parties in the conflict to look for a political settlement at the earliest by creating conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiations.

The document has also suggested setting up corridors for the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones and asked the two sides to avoid attacking civilians or civil facilities, and protect women, children and victims of the conflict. It also highlighted the need to respect the rights of prisoners of war.

The document has also called for keeping nuclear power plants safe and opposed the use of nuclear weapons.

Further, it highlights the need to keep supply chains stable and prevent disruptions in the free flow of energy, finance, food, and trade to ensure that global economic recovery is not undermined.

India has emphasised that under its G20 presidency, it will be the voice of the global south to address the challenges they face. The global south comprises the poor and developing countries of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. It is also the most populous part of the world. This region has been badly hit by the economic fallout due to the ensuing war.

Given the polarised and hostile relations among Russia and its opponents in the G20, it remains a big question if either side would seriously discuss the Chinese peace document or allow any other suggestion from members that could lead to a resumption of negotiations.

But if they agree to discuss and act upon even some of the suggestions, particularly those related to keeping the supply chains for food, essentials, and energy open, it might help mitigate some of the suffering the people of the world, especially those in the global south, have been facing for some time.