Veteran investor says we’re in another bear market rally — and names the stocks to trade it
It has been a rollercoaster ride for stock markets this year. After a strong beginning, major U.S. indexes ended February lower but have enjoyed a positive start to March. Despite the volatility, the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S & P 500 , and Nasdaq Composite all remain in positive territory — but market watchers are divided on whether this is the start of a new bull market or just another bear market rally. Michael Landsberg, partner and chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, is firmly in the latter camp. “Things are playing out as we expected. We have seen these bear market rallies play out since last summer. We believe the path is still lower, but there will continue to be these very strong short-term rallies to the upside suggesting otherwise,” he wrote in notes to CNBC. Several risks remain in the market, according to Landsberg. He predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a further 75-to-100 basis points, “in essence getting us to a deep recession.” Earnings, too, will continue to decelerate over the next few quarters, he said. How to trade Given all this, Landsberg has some advice for investors: “It is not time to broadly put money to work. We think there is still some pain in front of us.” “Patience, as well as careful individual stock selection, is key going forward,” he said, naming several opportunities still present in the market. For example, short-duration fixed income is an “attractive” area of the market right now, according to Landsberg. “Looking at where yields are in that one-to-three-year space; you can get north of 5% in treasuries. You get 5.5% in high-quality corporates. So, I think you have got to put some money in those places to be able to protect yourself. Conversely, the long end of the curve is telling me there’s no growth to be had,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” last week. In the equity space, he likes pharmaceutical firm Eli Lilly , healthcare insurer UnitedHealth , and NextEra Energy — all “long-term names that offer us attractive entry points,” according to Landsberg. His largest equity holding is his short positions in Invesco QQQ Trust , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 . “We continue to like that position as we enter the next two quarters of earnings,” he said. One sector that Landsberg is avoiding is “profitless tech,” as he believes earnings in the sector will continue to decelerate. “Some of these names that have gone down, they are down 30 or 40%, but still up over 100% from where they were just a couple of years ago, and they don’t really have anything that has changed in their businesses or profits. These are the names you got to stay away from,” he said.
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