Bharti Airtel inches up as Morgan Stanley stays overweight, expects 11% upside

Morgan Stanley expects tariff hike to be 1.3-1.5 percent accretive to revenues of the company’s India mobile business while it added that potential 4G tariff hikes and accelerated market share gains are the key triggers.

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The Bharti Airtel share price edged higher in the opening session on March 14 after Morgan Stanley retained its ‘overweight’ stance on the stock.

The global research firm expects the telecom stock to reach a target of Rs 860 per share, an upside of 11 percent from the current market price.

At 9:48am, Bharti Airtel was quoting at Rs 772.40, up Rs 6.65, or 0.87 percent, on the BSE. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 776.25 and an intraday low of Rs 764.90. The scrip was trading with volumes of 317,836 shares, compared to its five day average of 84,613 shares, an increase of 275.64 percent.

The telecom service provider has rolled out higher minimum recharge plans in the remaining three circles and has been the first mover in taking entry-level tariffs higher, according to Morgan Stanley.

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The research firm expects tariff hike to be 1.3-1.5 percent accretive to revenues of the company’s India mobile business while it added that potential 4G tariff hikes and accelerated market share gains are the key triggers.

The country’s second-largest telecom company reported a 91 percent surge in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,588 crore for the quarter ended December 2022, compared to Rs 830 crore a year ago. The surge was helped by improved realisation along with strong 4G customer additions during the year.

CLSA had earlier maintained its ‘buy’ call on Bharti Airtel’s stock and expects the price to reach Rs 1,015 per share. The research firm believes that the recent tariff hikes, which came 14 months ahead of the general elections, can boost the average revenue per user (ARPU) by 3 percent.

Bharti Airtel CEO recently indicated that there could be further tariff hikes by mid-2023. Additionally, the acceleration in post-paid subscriber growth is expected to further boost the ARPU. Bharti Airtel is also on track for a nationwide 5G rollout by March 2024, the research firm said.

CLSA has forecast that the company’s consolidated/India mobile earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will average 15-23 percent annual growth rate to FY25.

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