Earnings playbook: The second half of the season kicks off with Apple, Ford and a pharma giant
The second half of the earnings season gets underway this week, with a ton of major companies slated to report. Roughly 150 S & P 500 companies are scheduled to post their latest quarterly earnings, including Apple, Starbucks and Pfizer. For the most part, companies thus far have outperformed the muted expectations for this reporting period. Of the nearly 270 S & P 500 members that have reported calendar first-quarter earnings, 79.5% have beaten estimates, FactSet data shows. That’s about in line with a three-year average beat rate, according to Nick Raich of The Earnings Scout. Here are some of the big names slated to report next week, and what to expect from them. Tuesday Pfizer is set to report earnings before the bell. Management will hold a call at 10 a.m. ET. Last quarter: PFE said it sees 2023 sales falling by as much as 33% year over year. The company did, however, post better-than-expected adjusted earnings. This quarter: The pharmaceutical giant’s earnings are expected to have fallen sharply year over year, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC is watching: This will be the first quarterly report since Pfizer announced its $43 billion takeover of cancer drugmaker Seagen. Investors will be looking for updates on that front, as well as for clues on other measures taken to mitigate declines in Covid-related sales. What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows Pfizer beats earnings expectations 87% of the time. The stock has also done well in recent earnings days, advancing more than 1% after three of the last four reports were released. Ford Motor is set to report earnings after the close, followed by a call at 5 p.m. ET. Last quarter: F posted a net loss for the full year along with weaker-than-expected earnings. This quarter: Analysts expect Ford’s earnings rose about 8% year over year, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC automotive reporter Michael Wayland is watching: “Ford Motor will look to regain investor confidence with its first-quarter results following the automaker’s fourth-quarter earnings missing Wall Street’s expectations and its 2022 earnings falling short of the company’s full-year guidance. The Detroit automaker has been under increasing pressure to show that a turnaround plan led by CEO Jim Farley called Ford+ is taking hold. Investors will be closely watching the automaker’s results as well as the company’s progress regarding the turnaround plan and any updates on correcting ‘execution issues that Farley outlined to investors earlier this year.” What history shows: Ford earnings outperform earnings expectations 69% of the time, per Bespoke. To be sure, the company missed on its last report and posted an in-line profit in the third quarter. Starbucks is set to report earnings after the bell. Corporate leadership is slated to hold a call at 5 p.m. ET. Last quarter: SBUX posted results that missed estimates , as the company’s international revenue was pressured by a Covid surge in China. This quarter: Starbucks is expected to report 10% earnings and revenue increases, per Refinitiv. What CNBC is watching: Investors will be looking for updates on two fronts: U.S. labor and China. On the former, Wall Street will look for clues on how the company is moving to resolve persistent union battles. Recently, The National Labor Relations Board alleged that Starbucks didn’t hold fair negotiations with more than 100 unionized establishments. On the latter front, investors will look for signs of a sales recovery in China. What history shows: Starbucks earnings only beat expectations 53% of the time, per Bespoke. However, the stock typically does well after earnings, averaging a 0.64% advance on earnings day. Starbucks shares have also surged in three of the last four earnings days. AMD is set to report earnings after the close, with management scheduled to hold a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. Last quarter: AMD earnings and revenue beat, but the company warned revenue could fall 10% in the first quarter. This quarter: Refinitiv data shows analysts expect a big year-over-year earnings drop from the chipmaker. What CNBC is watching: AMD is slated to report earnings after rival Intel posted its biggest quarterly loss in company history. “Like Intel, AMD’s recent revenue trajectory has been battered by weak markets and channel flush. However, unlike Intel we fear that numbers into the 2H and 2024 could be too high rather than too low,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote. What history shows: AMD earnings outperform expectations 62% of the time, according to Bespoke. The stock does struggle on earnings days, though, losing more than 1% on average. To be sure, AMD shares rallied 12% after the last earnings report came out. Wednesday Qualcomm is set to report earnings after the bell, followed by a call at 4:45 p.m. ET. Last quarter: QCOM reported a 12% drop in revenue , and its guidance pointed to more pressure. This quarter: The semiconductor manufacturer’s earnings and revenue fell sharply in the previous quarter, analysts expect, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC is watching: Qualcomm shares have not only lagged the broader market, but they’ve also underperformed the semiconductor space. And Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore isn’t too excited heading into earnings. “We expect a relatively muted tone/outlook from QCOM on its F2Q23 (Mar) earnings report, with handset datapoints showing few signs of recovery in recent weeks.” What history shows: Qualcomm outperforms expectations 77% of the time, and its stock rises on average by 0.61% on earnings day, Bespoke data shows. However, Qualcomm shares fell the last three earnings days. Thursday Apple is set to report earnings after the bell. Management is scheduled to hold a call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Last quarter: AAPL reported its largest revenue decline since 2016 . This quarter: Analysts expect the iPhone maker’s earnings and revenue fell slightly from the year-earlier period, per Refinitiv. What CNBC tech reporter Kif Leswing is watching: “In February, Apple suggested that the March quarter could be rough after its first earnings miss versus the Street in seven years. Apple is expecting double-digit percentage declines in Macs and iPad revenue. IPhone sales will decrease less than 8%, according to the company’s data points. It’s not entirely Apple’s problem — the entire electronics industry is going through a deep slump as consumers are hanging on to gadget purchases they made during the pandemic. Overall PC shipments were down nearly 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC. Smartphones are doing better but not by much. The question for Apple investors will be if the blue chip still looks like a blue chip. If management gives signs that despite a slow quarter, it’s still ‘the best house in a challenged neighborhood,’ as Morgan Stanley analysts put it, investors could see upside later this year and further as the next iPhone refresh cycle starts and it potentially releases a new virtual reality headset.” What history shows: Apple has a stellar earnings record, beating expectations 88% of the time and averaging an earnings day gain of 1.3%, per Bespoke. The stock has also risen after the last three earnings reports. Friday Warner Bros Discovery is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Last quarter: WBD reported a big loss, and its revenue came in below expectations . This quarter: Analysts forecast a big revenue jump for the media giant, Refinitiv data shows. What CNBC is watching: Shares of Warner Bros Discovery have been on fire this year, surging more than 43% in that time and outperforming rival Paramount Global. Goldman Sachs analyst Brett Feldman reiterated WBD as his top pick heading into earnings. “While we expect investors to continue to debate the long-term outlook for traditional media companies, we see the risk/reward skew for WBD as most attractive vs. its peer group with key execution catalysts (merger milestones, max relaunch, improved franchise management) largely within management’s control,” he wrote. What history shows: Warner Bros Discovery shares have fallen in each of the last four earnings days, including two one-day losses of more than 10%. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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