Mixed June for auto sales: PVs, tractors to race ahead, CVs and two-wheelers may skid

Sales of electric two-wheelers are likely to see a significant decline of around 40-50 percent in June from the previous month

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Passenger vehicle (PV) and tractors sales in June are likely to be higher than the previous month but commercial vehicles (CV) and two-wheelers (2Ws) will see a decline in retail sales, analysts said on June 30.

Brokerage house Jefferies India has forecast a robust year-on-year (YoY) growth of 22 percent for Royal Enfield (Eicher) but a sequential decline of 3 percent. For Bajaj Auto 2-wheeler segment, the brokerage expects a 7 percent and 10 percent month-on-month and YoY decline. TVS Motors is likely to see sales slide a percent from May but grow 7 percent from the year-ago period.

Maruti Suzuki is expected to report a 9 percent each decline in domestic and export volumes, while YoY, it will likely report marginal growth.

Mahindra & Mahindra is likely to report a 17 percent MoM jump in tractor sales. Tractor retail sales are expected to grow further, driven by increased farm realisations expected for key commodities such as cotton during this season, analysts said. 

The continued disbursement of farm subsidies and support from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are contributing to the positive outlook for tractor sales.

Jefferies predicts a YoY decline of 4-5 percent for Tata Motors, primarily due to lower volumes in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment.

According to Yes Securities, the likely MoM fall in overall two-wheeler (2W) retail sales in June is primarily due to seasonal factors such as the conclusion of the marriage season and anticipation of the monsoon. 

While the overall sentiment has slightly improved, the recovery in rural markets is in select key areas and is yet to expand across the board, Yes Securities analysts said. However, the premium two-wheelers will continue to do well, carrying on the trend of the previous months.

EV blip 

Sales of electric two-wheelers are likely to see a decline of around 40-50 percent from May following the reduction in FAME II subsidy, which came into effect on June 1, analysts added.

“Inquiries for electric two-wheelers (EV 2Ws) are currently generating excitement, indicating potential interest from consumers. It is expected that sales conversion for EV 2Ws will gradually improve over a span of two-three months”, the Yes Securities report said.