GAIL India to see higher realisation as PNGRB hikes tariff: Kotak Institutional Equities

With the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) raising unified tariff for the national gas grid, Kotak Institutional Equities sees higher realisation for GAIL India.

PNGRB raised the unified tariff for the national gas grid by approximately 10 percent to Rs 81 per mmbtu with varying increases of 1 percent, 5 percent, and 15 percent for zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

At revised volume projections, GAIL India can realise even higher, approximately Rs 66 per mmbtu as compared with Rs 64 per mmbtu earlier, as it now projects less volume in zone-2 and higher volume in farther zones, highlighted Kotak Institutional Equities.

At 10:40 am, shares of GAIL India were trading up 0.7 percent at Rs 105.70.

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To keep impact low for customers closer to the source, the zone 1 tariff was increased a marginal 1 percent to Rs 40 per mmbtu, and zone-2 by 5 percent to Rs 79 per mmbtu. However, the increase is higher by 15 percent for zone-3 at Rs 115 per mmbtu (around $1.4 mmbtu, earlier Rs 100 per mmbtu).

“With lower volumes in zone-2 and higher volumes in farther zones, GAIL’s average retaliation for INGPL (Integrated Natural Gas Pipeline) will further increase to Rs 66 per mmbtu (earlier Rs 64 per mmbtu), around 12 percent higher versus the approved levelised tariff of Rs 58.6 per mmbtu,” the domestic brokerage firm said.

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Kotak Institutional Equities said that its earlier interaction with GAIL India suggested that it could retain the benefit of a higher tariff, as the regulation provides for gain or loss on zonal variation to be retained by entities.

The current forecast of Kotak Institutional Equities has built in an INGPL realisation of Rs 62 per mmbtu in FY24 and Rs 60 per mmbtu in FY25 as against a levelised tariff of Rs 58.6.

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