IOCL gains ahead of June quarter earnings

According to a Bloomberg poll of two brokerages, IOCL will report a profit of Rs 7,576.10 crore. Revenue is expected to be around Rs 1.91 trillion, according to six brokerages, while two brokerages peg the EBITDA at Rs 20,698.80 crore

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Shares of Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOCL) gained a percent ahead of its June quarter earnings due later on July 28, with state-run oil marketer expected to post a strong set of numbers driven by a sharp recovery in margins.

According to a Bloomberg poll of two brokerages, IOCL will report a profit of Rs 7,576.10 crore. Revenue is expected to be around Rs 1.91 trillion, according to six brokerages, while two brokerages peg the EBITDA at Rs 20,698.80 crore.

Analysts expect IOCL to report improved operational performance due to a recovery in marketing gains with blended margins reaching Rs 9 a litre, up from Rs 3 a litre in the previous quarter. This improvement is expected despite lower Gross Refining Margins (GRMs).  Analysts estimate refining margins of $10.1 /bbl for IOCL in comparison to $15.2/bbl in 4QFY23.

The Benchmark Singapore margins declined to $4.1 a barrel from $8.2 in Q4FY23, primarily because of a significant drop in diesel and ATF spreads by approximately $12.

This reduction in refining spreads will be partially offset by the ongoing procurement of discounted Russian crude. As a result, though refining profits are expected to be lower, the recovery in marketing margins is likely to drive the Q1 profits after tax, analysts said.

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“We anticipate IOCL’s EBITDA to rise 11x YoY (up 7 percent QoQ) attributable to strong marketing offset by weak refining. Marketing margins have risen sharply over the past two quarters amid falling crude prices,” Nuvama Research said in a note to investors.

Diesel marketing margins are estimated at Rs 10 a litre (INR-15 YoY, INR+2 QoQ). It expects a 5 percent year on year rise in domestic retail sales this quarter, the note said.

“We expect throughput to decline 2 percent YoY and QoQ. Singapore GRMs have plunged 80 percent YoY and 50 percent  QoQ. Petchem is likely to remain subdued on weak realisation YoY”, it said.

Analysts said the high auto fuel over-recoveries are expected to offset the substantial decline in refining margins during Q1FY24, which is estimated to be over 50 percent lower at approximately $4.1 a barrel.

Despite a sequential decline in IOCLs’ GRM, they are projected to continue outperforming the Singapore complex GRM due to the advantage of utilizing discounted Russian crude oil.

At 10.50 am, the stock was trading at Rs 96.55 on the BSE, up a percent from its previous close.

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