GAIL recoups early losses with 3% gain on mixed brokerage views

Brokerage reaction was mixed after GAIL reported its June quarter numbers.

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Shares of GAIL India opened 1 percent lower but recovered the early losses soon and gained over 3 percent on August 1. Brokerage reaction was mixed after the company reported its quarterly numbers.

GAIL reported a 45 percent drop in its consolidated net profit for the June quarter of FY24 at Rs 1,793 crore as against Rs 3,251 crore last year. It spiked over 179 percent from Rs 643 crore in the March quarter this fiscal. Revenue was flat at Rs 32,849 crore in the quarter under review as against Rs 37,942 crore a year ago.

At 10:22am, shares of the company were trading 1.9 percent higher at Rs 121.3 on the BSE.

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Nomura that has a ‘neutral’ recommendation on the stock said the company reported a weak set of numbers and quickly added that though the outlook is optimistic, it has already been priced in. The brokerage firm has a target price of Rs 125.

Morgan Stanley has an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 139. It highlighted that the company’s positive guidance pointed to upside risks to the Street’s estimate after a year of challenges. Strong gas transmission volume growth and improving petrochemicals are upside risks, according to the brokerage firm.

As gas costs fall ahead by a fifth and pipeline tariffs rise, Morgan Stanley sees more upside in the stock. The stock has run up 16 percent in a month.

The recent rally was driven by Brent prices and hopes of commodity business rising, said JP Morgan.

Read more | Gail shares hit 52-week high on UBS double upgrades to ‘buy’

JP Morgan said GAIL’s earnings missed estimates on both fronts – EBITDA and net profit. The global brokerage firm has a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 115.

GAIL offers diverse growth prospects driven by transmission, trading, and higher petchem capacity. Yet, underutilisation of pipelines and weak petchem pose challenges, as per Nuvama Institutional Equities that has retained its ‘hold’ rating with a target price of Rs 122 on the stock.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services is of the view that the stock trades at about 9 percent discount to its one-year forward long-term price-to-earnings average. The domestic brokerage firm has a ‘buy’ call on the stock with a Rs 145 target price.

Read more | Maruti goes downhill on muted Q1 earnings, worries over Gujarat unit deal

Guidance

GAIL is currently in the process of executing approximately 70 projects valued at Rs 45,000 crore, spanning across various businesses. Over the next four to five years, these projects are expected to contribute 10-15 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of additional transmission volumes, reaching a total of 135-140 mmscmd by FY26.

For the upcoming fiscal year, GAIL has planned a capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 10,000 crore. The allocation includes Rs 4,000 crore for pipelines, Rs 3,200 crore for petrochemicals, and an equity contribution of Rs 3,500 crore.

GAIL is responsible for supplying gas to 154 CNG stations and 0.27 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections. The company aims to expand its reach by adding 100 CNG stations and 0.2 million PNG connections within the next two years.