Gas stocks boil up to 6% on Brent heat, but firm prices may cap gains

Gas stocks boil up to 6% on Brent heat, but firm prices may cap gains

Global energy prices are on the upswing after Brent crude prices surged to a ten-month high of over $90 per barrel.

Earlier this month, the government increased the price of natural gas to USD 8.60 per metric million British thermal unit (mmBtu) for September

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Shares of gas companies surged up to 6 percent intraday on September 6, even as rising global crude oil prices cast a shadow over the pricing metrics.

At 11.10am, shares of Petronet LNG were trading 5.8 percent up at Rs 242, followed by Indraprastha Gas Ltd (up 2.03 percent), Gujarat Gas (up 1.41 percent), GAIL (up 1.22 percent) and Adani Total Gas (up 0.58 percent).

Global energy prices are on the upswing after Brent crude prices in the past week surged to a 10-month high of over $90 per barrel.

Brent crude prices have surged over 6.5 percent in the last seven days following a decision Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary supply cuts till December. The move triggered concern over shortage during peak winter.

Follow our live blog for more updates

Domestic gas importers are facing further headwinds after workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG plants in Australia are set to go on limited strike from September 7, potentially impacting exports of 24.5 MT (around 88 mmscmd) of combined capacities at the two terminals.

This represents around 5 percent of global LNG liquefaction capacity, ICICI Securities said in a note.

Barring this event, operational environment remains fairly comfortable for LNG prices for both near-term and medium-term.

“Notwithstanding our contention that prices will remain in a narrower band in FY24E vs FY23, we submit that escalation of the worker dispute can create short-term spikes in LNG prices. The current operational environment for CGDs in India and the cost metrics for GAIL’s petrochemical segment does not allow for much pricing power, hence we assume that any price escalation in LNG will have to be absorbed by the CGDs (city gas distribution companies),” it added.

As a thumb rule, every $1/mmbtu increase in blended gas cost for the domestic and CNG segment results in a margin impact of Rs 3/scm for CNG and domestic segment, necessitating a price hike of Rs 4.4/kg or so for CNG and Rs 3.2/scm for domestic segment to bridge the difference.

Earlier this month, the government increased the price of natural gas to $8.60 per metric million British thermal unit (mmBtu) for September, from $7.85 in August.

However, the price of the gas from the nominated gas fields of ONGC and Oil India has been kept unchanged at the price cap of $6.5 per mmBtu.

The price of domestic natural gas has been linked to the India crude oil basket since April and is changed every month.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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