Analysts’ tracker: Coal India sees most upgrades in a month among Nifty names

Several brokerages have raised FY24 earnings estimates for the coal miner after strong September quarter earnings, with production and offtake growing 12-13 percent during the period

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Analysts have favoured Coal India Ltd (CIL) significantly in over the last month, with 18 “buy”, one “hold” and four “sell” calls for the government-owned company’s stock that followed FY24 earnings upgrade by several brokerage houses.

The revisions came after strong September quarter earnings, reported in November, with production and offtake growing by 12-13 percent during the period.

The stock had 14 “buy”, two “hold” and six “sell” ratings in the previous month.

Earnings upgrade

Jefferies India and Antique Stock Broking have raised FY24 earnings estimates for the coal mining major by 18 percent and 20 percent.

But the highest upgrade among the 50 Nifty companies came from Motilal Oswal Financial Services at 18.1 percent.

Kotak Institutional Equities and Nuvama Institutional Equities also increased their earnings estimates for Coal India.

The upgrades came after the firm on November 10 reported a 12.5 percent year-on-year surge in consolidated net profit at Rs 6,800 crore for the September quarter.

The increase was attributed to higher sales and greater profit from CIL’s joint ventures, contributing Rs 89.75 crore against a negative Rs 140.75 crore in the year-ago period.

Revenue grew by almost 4 percent to Rs 3,277 crore. CIL’s consolidated sales rose to Rs 29,978.01 crore from Rs 27,538.59 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Though the stock has surged 60 percent this year, analysts are optimistic about Coal India.

Valued at 10 times the price to earnings, the stock is considered inexpensive. Recent data indicates a decline in coal stock at thermal power plants, potentially boosting Coal India’s near-term sales.

The events of the past year in the power sector have shown that coal demand won’t diminish soon. Analysts suggest India plans to construct more thermal power plants by 2032.

According to Motilal Oswal’s recent note, Coal India supplies around 90 percent of its production to the power sector, with thermal power accounting for 83-85 percent of India’s electricity generated. To meet rising demand, the company aims for a 1000 MT coal production target by FY 26-27.

In the current fiscal year, Coal India is targeting a production of 780 MT, signalling a 16 percent year-on-year growth from November to March. The firm is optimistic about achieving a volume target of 850 MT in FY25 and reaching 1000 MT by FY26.

At 1.24 pm, the stock was trading at Rs 355, up 2.41 percent from the previous close.

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