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Experts see Nifty at 19,800 in coming sessions
The market clawed back above 10-day EMA (exponential moving average placed at 19,627) as well as 50-day EMA (19,560) on the Nifty50 after the positive trend in last couple of sessions, and is now on the verge of 20-day EMA (19,662). Once it gets back and sustains above the 20-day EMA, then 19,800 can’t be ruled out, till then 19,600-19,500 is expected to act as a support area, experts said.
On October 6, the day of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting outcome, wherein the status quo on policy rates was maintained with clear focus on arresting inflation within the 4 percent target, the BSE Sensex jumped 364 points to 65,996, while the Nifty50 rose 108 points to 19,654 and formed bullish candlestick pattern with minor upper & lower shadows on the daily charts.
“On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has managed to close above the 40-day moving average (19,610), which is a bullish sign. On the weekly charts, we can observe that the Nifty has closed in the green and in term of pattern it has formed a Dragonfly Doji, which has bullish implications,” Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said.
He expects this pullback to continue till 19,778 – 19,800, where resistance in the form of the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-day moving average is placed. In the case of a dip towards 19,530 – 19,580 it should be used as a buying opportunity, he advised.
Buying was also seen in broader markets on positive breadth, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gaining 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent respectively. The fear index, India VIX, dropped to over 2-month low at 10.3 levels, down by 5.57 percent from 10.94 levels, which boosted bulls confidence.
We have collated 15 data points to help you spot profitable trades:
Note: The open interest (OI) and volume data of stocks are the aggregates of three-month data and not just the current month.
Key support and resistance levels on Nifty
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may be taking support at 19,607, followed by 19,586 and 19,553. On the higher side, 19,673 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 19,693 and 19,726.
On October 6, the Bank Nifty also saw positive opening for yet another session and formed higher tops, higher bottoms on the daily charts for the second straight day. The index closed 147 points higher at 44,361, after volatility and formed Doji sort of candlestick pattern (not exactly one). If the index takes out the high Friday’s candle (44,500) and sustains there then 45,000 is likely in coming sessions, with support at 44,200-44,000 levels, experts said.
“If Bank Nifty manages to stay above the support of 44,000 levels, there is potential for a rally towards the range of 44,800 to 45,000. However, it’s important to note that if Bank Nifty falls below the 44,000 to 43,800 range, the current uptrend in the index may become vulnerable,” Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services said.
Therefore, market participants should closely monitor these levels to make informed trading decisions in the banking sector, he advised.
As per the pivot point calculator, the banking index is expected to take support at 44,270, followed by 44,209 and 44,110. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 44,467, then at 44,527 and at 44,626.
The weekly options data indicated that the maximum Call open interest (OI) was at 20,000 strike with 69.45 lakh contracts, which can act as a key resistance for the Nifty. It was followed by the 20,500 strike, which had 63.88 lakh contracts, while 19,900 strike had 52.42 lakh contracts.
Meaningful Call writing was seen at 20,500 strike, which added 36.03 lakh contracts followed by 20,000 and 19,900 strikes, which added 30.28 lakh and 25.71 lakh contracts.
The maximum Call unwinding was at 19,500 strike, which shed 14.35 lakh contracts followed by 19,600 strike and 19,400 strike, which shed 8.56 lakh contracts and 1.32 lakh contracts.
On the Put side, the maximum open interest remained at 19,500 strike with 70.83 lakh contracts. This can be an important support for the Nifty in the coming sessions.
It was followed by 19,600 strike, comprising 69.17 lakh contracts and 19,000 strike with 67.2 lakh contracts.
The meaningful Put writing was at 19,600 strike, which added 50.92 lakh contracts, followed by 19,000 strike and 19,500 strike, which added 35.49 lakh and 25.01 lakh contracts.
Put unwinding was at 19,100 strike, which shed 71,400 contracts, followed by 20,000 strike and 20,500 strike, which shed 13,450 and 2,800 contracts.
Stocks with high delivery percentage
A high delivery percentage suggests that investors are showing interest in the stock. Petronet LNG, Shriram Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, SBI Card, and Exide Industries saw the highest delivery among the F&O stocks.
A long build-up was seen in 80 stocks namely, Bajaj Finserv, L&T Finance Holdings, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance, and Apollo Tyres. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
Based on the OI percentage, a total of seven stocks, including Punjab National Bank, Coforge, Godrej Consumer Products, LIC Housing Finance, and HDFC Bank saw a long unwinding. A decline in OI and price indicates long unwinding.
25 stocks see a short build-up
A short build-up was seen in 25 stocks, including Dalmia Bharat, Petronet LNG, Tata Communications, Dixon Technologies, and HCL Technologies. An increase in OI along with a fall in price points to a build-up of short positions.
Based on the OI percentage, 73 stocks were on the short-covering list. These included Ramco Cements, Indraprastha Gas, Metropolis Healthcare, Birlasoft, and Torrent Pharma. A decrease in OI along with a price increase is an indication of short-covering.
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Stocks in the news
Tata Consultancy Services: India’s largest IT services exporter said the Board of Directors would consider a proposal for buyback of equity shares of the company, on October 11. The company is also scheduled to announce earnings for July-September and April-September periods of FY24.
Reliance Industries: A subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) will invest Rs 4,966.80 crore in Reliance Retail Ventures, the subsidiary of Reliance Industries. This investment values Reliance Retail Ventures at a pre-money equity value of Rs 8.381 lakh crore. The investment by ADIA will translate into an equity stake of 0.59 percent in Reliance Retail Ventures on a fully-diluted basis.
Titan Company: The jewellery-watch-to-eyewear company recorded revenue growth of 20 percent YoY for the quarter ended September FY24, with jewellery division growing 19 percent, watches & wearables 32 percent and eyecare segment registering 12 percent YoY growth. Emerging businesses growth stood at 29 percent YoY, while CaratLane grew by 45 percent YoY for the quarter.
Bank of Baroda: The public sector lender said its total business crossed Rs 22 lakh crore mark in the quarter ended September FY24, up 15.88 percent over a year-ago period, as per provisional numbers. Total advances of the bank grew by 17.43 percent YoY and 3.51 percent QoQ to Rs 10.25 lakh crore and deposits increased by 14.63 percent YoY and 4.15 percent QoQ to Rs 12.49 lakh crore as of September FY24.
Biocon: The Bengaluru-based biopharmaceutical company has signed a partnership agreement with Juno Pharmaceuticals, a specialty pharmaceutical company in Canada, for the commercialisation of its formulation, Liraglutide. Liraglutide is a drug-device combination for the treatment and management of Type 2 diabetes and obesity.
Metropolis Healthcare: The pathology labs & diagnostic centers chain has recorded 13 percent year-on-year growth in its core business revenue for the quarter ended September FY24, which included Hi-tech but excluded Covid, Covid allied & PPP contracts), as per provisional data. Revenue growth was largely driven by volume growth demonstrating strong customer acquisition.
Prestige Estates Projects: The real estate developer recorded a 102 percent year-on-year growth in sales at Rs 7,092.6 crore for the quarter ended September FY24. The quarterly collections at Rs 2,639.8 crore grew by 1 percent YoY.
Fund Flow (Rs Crore)
Foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 90.29 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased Rs 783.25 crore worth of stocks on October 6, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed.
Stocks under F&O ban on NSE
The NSE has retained Punjab National Bank, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Delta Corp, and Manappuram Finance to its F&O ban list for October 9. Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
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